Yes, Danica Patrick can Win at Both Daytona and Indianapolis in 2018. Here's Why.

I'm rather neutral when it comes to supporting Danica Patrick.

After her impressive debut Indianapolis 500 mile race in 2005, in which she finished fourth and led 19 laps, Danica Patrick was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated.

I've never really been a big fan of her, but I'm certainly not a hater either. In fact, I have never understood why so many race fans do hate her. She's broken barriers and set numerous records and standards for women in motorsports. Sure, to call her an "all-time great" may be a stretch, but she certainly was good enough to race in her respective divisions for as long as she has.

I was excited for her in 2008 when she won her first (and to date only) IndyCar Series race at Twin Ring Motegi in Japan. I was also intrigued by her move to NASCAR in 2010, which became a full-time move in 2012 when she decided to leave IndyCar. I wanted to see her succeed, but aside from a pole at the 2013 Daytona 500, there have only been a few bright spots in her NASCAR career. In the Cup Series, she has only seven top-tens and has never even cracked the top-five in nearly 200 races.

Patrick celebrates her only IndyCar Series win with second-place finisher Hélio Castroneves and third-place finisher Scott Dixon.
(Photo: Jonathan Ferry/Getty Images)

When I consider hypothetical situations, two of them that involve Patrick come to mind immediately. The first is "What if she had stayed in IndyCar?" Who knows. I'm fairly certain she would have stayed at Andretti Autosport, which means the late Dan Wheldon would have never been in the position he was to replace her in 2012, nor would James Hinchcliffe have ended up with her ride after Wheldon's tragic death at Las Vegas. She probably would have won at least a couple more races (she finished second twice in 2010). And maybe, just maybe, her face would be on the Borg-Warner Trophy, immortalized in American open-wheel racing history as the first woman to win the Indianapolis 500.

Patrick moved to the NASCAR Nationwide Series part-time with JR Motorsports in 2010 while continuing to race full-time in IndyCar with Andretti Autosport. She made the full-time switch to NASCAR in 2012, moving to Cup full-time the following year.
(Photo: Car and Driver Blog)

The other hypothetical situation is "What if she had stayed in the then-Nationwide Series a bit longer, for at least two to three more years, before moving to the Cup Series full-time?" Again, we'll never know for sure, but let's assume she remains with JR Motorsports, one of the top organizations in what is now called the Xfinity Series. I'm willing to bet she wins a race or two here as well, maybe on a road course or a super speedway. Regardless, she would have at the very least gotten valuable experience against competition closer to her skill level at the time, which would have better prepared her for her move to NASCAR's top level of racing.

Patrick moonlighted in the Nationwide Series for Turner Scott Motorsports after moving to Cup but never ran a race outside of Daytona or Talladega.
(Photo: Action Sports Photography/Motorsport.com)

But facts are facts, and the fact of the matter is that she was rushed to the Cup Series with a tremendous amount of pressure and never lived up to such lofty expectations. Frankly, how could one expect her to do so?

Patrick struggled early and often in her Sprint Cup Series career, though not every accident was entirely her fault.
(Photo: John Harrelson/Getty Images)

Eventually, the struggles became too much for her to handle. Faced with poor on-track performance relative to her Stewart-Haas Racing teammates, combined with sponsorship woes after GoDaddy.com's departure that included a lawsuit with Nature's Bakery, Patrick announced yesterday that, after tomorrow's race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and (most likely) Matt Kenseth won't be the only ones calling it quits on their full-time careers.

Patrick tearfully announced her retirement yesterday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
(Photo: Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

However, Patrick also announced something that was perhaps the most surprising thing of all. She will compete in the 2018 Daytona 500 in February before returning to the Indianapolis 500 in May.

Patrick has not run the Indianapolis 500 since 2011 when she finished tenth.
(Photo: Eric Gilbert/Motorsport.com)

Now obviously, there are still several things that need to be sorted out. We have no idea of the team for whom Patrick will be driving in either event. Stewart-Haas will most likely not be an option for Daytona as they are expected to have a full four-car team once again. Likewise, her former IndyCar team is unlikely to be a possibility, as their fifth car run only at Indianapolis will be driven by the late Justin Wilson's brother, Stefan. The only rumor so far is that Patrick could possibly run both races for Chip Ganassi, who owns successful race teams in both series and is interested in making the idea come to life. But despite the unknowns, mark my word and take this down.

Danica Patrick can win both the Daytona 500 and the Indianapolis 500 in 2018.

Now before you accuse me of being an unrealistic Danica fanboy, let me explain my reasoning.

Patrick led laps on superspeedways several times in her career.
(Photo: Fox Sports)

When it comes to Patrick's performance in NASCAR, there's no question her greatest strength was running on restrictor plate tracks. Patrick has led laps at Daytona and Talladega on numerous occasions. The way those tracks work, anyone who has an understanding of the draft who plays his or her cards right can win the race. Patrick was running third on the final lap of the 2013 Daytona 500 before fading to eighth. Had things gone slightly differently, she may have been able to win that one.

Patrick collided with Team Penske's Ryan Briscoe in the pit lane on lap 171 of the 2008 Indianapolis 500.
(Photo: Michael Damsky/Reuters)

Likewise, Patrick's best track in IndyCar was undoubtedly Indianapolis. Aside from the pictured 2008 collision, Patrick finished in the top ten in every Indianapolis 500 in which she participated from 2005 to 2011. Another thing working in her favor is the new aero kit being introduced for the IndyCar Series in 2018. With new cars, every driver will have somewhat of a learning curve in next year's Month of May.

Still, Patrick will likely need to do some testing to readjust to a single-seater. If I were in her position, I would strongly consider running at least the Grand Prix of Indianapolis on the IMS road course to give her additional IndyCar seat time before qualifying for the 500. But given how quickly drivers such as Kurt Busch, Alexander Rossi, and Fernando Alonso have been able to adapt to IndyCars after never having been in one before, it would be foolish to think Patrick cannot do the same after her absence.

Let's also say she works out a deal with Ganassi. Ganassi has pulled off the double himself; in 2010, Jamie McMurray won the Daytona 500 while Dario Franchitti kissed the bricks at Indianapolis. His teams are both more than capable of winning, and while Patrick and Ganassi have never worked together, such a combination should be able to provide results should everything go their way.

Should Patrick be expected to win either of these races? Probably not.

But she absolutely can.

The Greatest Day in Racing

Last year's three winners: Lewis Hamilton, Alexander Rossi, Martin Truex Jr.
(Photo: NBCSN)

There are three days I look forward to every year more so than any others: Christmas, Easter, and the Sunday before Memorial Day.

Considering that's the day with the most prestigious Formula One race, the most prestigious IndyCar race, and (arguably) the second most prestigious NASCAR race, it makes sense that this is one of my favorite days on the calendar.

Say what you want about Monaco and the kind of racing it produces; I still love it. Strategy becomes that much more important considering how it's virtually impossible to pass. Indianapolis only gets better with age. The past few years have seen some incredible finishes, and I expect nothing different tomorrow. Charlotte, NASCAR's endurance race, will be a bit of an unknown this year. There's an extra stage around which teams must strategize, but with stage racing having provided so much excitement this season, I hope for more of the same in the 600.

So who will win? For Monaco, I'm going with Kimi Räikkönen. After snapping a streak of nearly nine seasons without a pole, assuming Räikkönen gets a good start and Ferrari don't mess up his strategy, look for him to win his first race since his return to the Scuderia in 2014. At Indianapolis, I'm going to be bold and pick Fernando Alonso. Why? Why not. He's got the speed, the team, and the talent. Don't be surprised if the two-time F1 World Champion is drinking the milk on Sunday afternoon. Finally, in Charlotte, I'm picking Kyle Busch. Joe Gibbs Racing is on a high after winning the All-Star Race, which Busch himself won. Look for him to pull off the Charlotte double.

Finally, look for much more frequent blog posts in the weeks to come. I've been quite busy with schoolwork this past month, but now I'm three exams away from finishing high school, so I'll have much more time on my hands for working on this blog.

Notes while I was gone

McLaren's latest Indy entry...until this year (Photo: McLaren)

It's been a while. I've been busy with schoolwork, other real life chores, and another blog for a trip to Mexico. A lot has happened since my last post, so I'll cover the highlights one by one.

Fernando Alonso is running the Indy 500. Sorry Nico Rosberg, your absence on the grid is no longer the biggest shocker of the season. Ironically, Alonso will be driving another McLaren-Honda. The team will get support from IndyCar powerhouse Andretti Autosport, however, so expect them to be competitive. If Manor F1 refugee Alexander Rossi can win the race as a rookie, who's to say a double world champion can't do the same?

On that note, Jenna Fryer owes Alonso a major apology for this column, entitled, "So What that Alonso is Racing in the Indy 500?" Well, Jenna, maybe it's because the F1 season for McLaren is lost, so what do they have to lose? Also, the reason he hasn't scored any points with McLaren this season has been because, well, to put it lightly, his car is terrible. Seriously, Alonso hasn't even finished a race yet! And do you really think Tony Stewart or Danica Patrick would have provided more buzz? Maybe in the States alone, sure, but now the whole world will be watching to see what Alonso to do. I have to give you props, though. When you make Mario Andretti livid, you've accomplished something.

Sauber look to be headed to Honda engines in 2018. That's cool for Honda, I guess, but I'm not so sure about Sauber. I'm sure there's some behind-the-scenes financial reasoning that makes this deal make sense, but McLaren have been so dreadful this year that their $40 million driver has decided to skip their biggest race of the year to go run, well, another biggest race of the year. I'm not convinced that McLaren chassis is all that great either, but Honda still has a lot of work to do as an engine supplier...

Finally, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is retiring after this season. It honestly makes sense, given his expiring contract, but also his health concerns the past few seasons. Personally, my early pick for his replacement is Alex Bowman, but I've been wrong before, so we'll see what Hendrick does.

Opinion: Having Only Forty-Two Cars at Daytona is a Crime

Photo: Tommy Baldwin Racing Facebook

I've followed NASCAR full-time for the last ten seasons. The first time I watched the Daytona 500 (2007), sixty-one cars showed up for qualifications.

Sixty-one.

Yes, do the math. Sixty-one > forty-three. Eighteen cars went home that day.

Now, looking at other years around that time, this was still a rather large number, even for the biggest race of the year. But next week at Fontana, fifty-one cars showed up with the intention of racing on Sunday. A sizable amount (eight) still failed to qualify. On any given weekend, there were always multiple cars that would fail to qualify and end up going home before the featured event.

Ten years later, as I sit here write this blog post, forty-two cars, one fewer than would have made a full field back then, have just finished qualifying for the 2017 Daytona 500. Today, only forty cars make the field, so two drivers will unfortunately have to watch the race from their motorhomes.

Obviously, two is not nearly as many as eighteen.

There are many possible explanations for why the entry list is only two-thirds the size it was a decade ago. Yes, the economy is not great, and yes, that has caused several teams to downsize and even close entirely.

But NASCAR also has a new system in place: the charter system. Thirty-six teams are awarded charters by NASCAR at the beginning of every season. The process is too complicated for me to have any desire to explain it here, but the bottom line is this: if a team has a charter, they are guaranteed a spot in each race that season.

That leaves only four open spots for non-chartered teams to fill.

Not only that, but teams with possession of a charter also earn more money and added benefits than teams without one. At the end of the day, if a team has no charter, they are going to have a hard time surviving in the sport.

I understand NASCAR's thinking here. Chartered teams receive added benefits and thus are more likely to be able to sustain themselves for years to come. It thus becomes easier for chartered teams to stay in business.

But thinking like that, in my opinion, is counterintuitive.

The flip side of the charter system means that it becomes much harder for "open" non-chartered teams to stay in business. Without major sponsorship and the other benefits a charter itself brings to a team, it becomes virtually impossible to operate without losing an excessive amount of money. Since Daytona is the biggest race of the season, it's highly probable we'll see a few short fields of less than forty cars this season.

The start-and-parks are non-existent in the Cup Series nowadays. Virtually all of the smaller, unsponsored, part-time teams have had to merge or close their doors in the past few years. And as ESPN's Ryan McGee argued when this system was launched, "I worry that they're making the Charter Club a little too exclusive."

It appears McGee may be right, because there are only forty-two cars at the track at Daytona this February.

Frankly, that's a crime.

Stewart Returns to Indy...As a Sponsor

Photo: Motorsport.com

Tony Stewart may not be racing in NASCAR full-time anymore, but that doesn't mean he's done with racing. 

In fact, if you thought he was, you couldn't be more wrong. In addition to running at least 71 other races in 2017, Stewart's foundation will return to Indianapolis as a sponsor for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports in the Indy 500.

Stewart will be promoting his Team One Cure program aimed at helping develop and research cancer treatments in both animals and pets, explaining, "We learned that with the One Cure program, cancer treatment breakthroughs are happening through collaboration between scientists and doctors working with both people and pets. It perfectly fits with my foundation’s missions to help children and animals."

Stewart's history at Indianapolis as a driver is a mixed bag when it comes to IndyCar. In five starts, he failed to finish the race twice but also earned three top-ten finishes, with a best of fifth in 1997. The three-time NASCAR Cup champion also won the 1997 Indy Racing League championship, only further adding to his impressive motorsport resume.

A Brief Opinion on NASCAR's New Format

With a new logo comes a whole new
era of racing.

Yes, this is a bit overdue, but there is a good reason for that.

I had a knee-jerk reaction when I first heard the news that NASCAR would be overhauling its race format and dividing each race into segments: I thought it was a terrible idea. That being said, I wanted to wait to write this opinion post until today because I wanted to give it a week or so to sink in.

Now, I'm not inherently opposed to the Chase, but I will admit, the traditionalist in me prefers the pre-Chase era. If NASCAR had had some form of the Chase since 1949, I would have no problem with it at all. But Jimmie Johnson's seven titles are virtually impossible to compare with Richard Petty's, since they were won under different points formats.

With these changes, it's now going to be impossible to compare a new driver's entire career to that of a driver from an earlier era. Chase Elliott will make a name for himself in NASCAR, but he'll do so with a different driving style, using different strategies, etc, than his father Bill used in his career. Not only will the Chase races and Championships look different, but every race will look different, as Cup Series veteran Regan Smith noted.

Based on what I've seen on social media, fan reaction has been mixed. Some find this change refreshing; others are traditionalists like me who are disappointed with such a major, sweeping change to all three series.

My main problem is not the format itself. My problem is that it's being used by an established series that has been around for nearly 70 years.

To borrow an example from open-wheel racing, Formula E is far different than Formula One when it comes to rules and regulations, and I have no problem with that. If NASCAR wanted to create some sort of electric or "green" racing series with Chevy Volts, Nissan Leafs and Toyota Priuses, I'd be happy with them using any format they want. It's a new series, why not try something different?

The three national NASCAR series, however, have already established themselves in tradition. I see no need to mix things up. Sure, the middle 100 laps can get boring sometimes, but to be honest, so can the second and third quarters of an NBA game.

In conclusion, I don't have a great feeling about this, but I also won't judge a book by its cover. The drivers all seem on board with this, so that's a positive sign. We'll know more after the first couple of races this season.

On a related note, my fellow Wikipedian, Justin Nguyen (or User:ZappaOMati), also gave his thoughts on the new format on his blog, which can be found here.

On an unrelated note, congrats to Jeff Gordon and his team on their Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona win today. It was well-deserved and only further cements Gordon's legacy as one of the greatest drivers of all time.

Bye-bye Carl?

Photo: Fox Sports

As if one shocking retirement weren't enough this offseason...

Carl Edwards, a 13-year NASCAR veteran who drove for Joe Gibbs Racing this past season, nearly winning the championship, is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow. Reigning XFINITY series champion Daniel Suárez is expected to replace him.

I agree with Fox Sports analyst and former NASCAR crew chief Jeff Hammond: there must be a monumental reason behind this. Edwards is only 37, not quite as young as Nico Rosberg (31) but certainly younger than several active drivers, including reigning champion Jimmie Johnson (41). He still has at least two or three years left in his prime and he drives for one of NASCAR's strongest teams, making this decision even more puzzling.

Rosberg admitted he would have stayed in Formula One had he not won the World Championship. But he did, and gets to go out on top. Edwards came within ten laps of winning the championship but ultimately fell short. My hope is that, like Rosberg, Edwards simply believes it's time to hang up the helmet.

I certainly hope there's not a more serious issue going on that would force him to step away. We'll find out after a JGR press conference tomorrow.

Repaves

Photo: Atlanta Motor Speedway

It's January, which means it's arguably the slowest month in terms of motorsport news. All the major series are off and most of the silly season pieces have fallen into place.

There was, however, some news in the NASCAR world today: Atlanta Motor Speedway is getting a repave. That's not too surprising, given that the last repave was in 1997, making it the second-oldest racing surface in NASCAR. What may be surprising to some folks is that AMS is actually one of NASCAR's fastest tracks, and has been ever since the 1997 reconfiguration and repave.

With this news, the track is almost sure to see increased speeds in 2018 (the project will begin after the March 2017 NASCAR races take place). Still, it's in great shape considering the pavement turns twenty this year. The linked article in the above paragraph notes that the mild winters in Georgia and a high-maintinence program certainly don't hurt.

On a side note, school has started back up for me. So don't be surprised if the blog goes a couple of days without being updated here or there, or if the entries are mostly on the shorter side (like this one).

Why Felipe Massa's (Potential) Retirement U-turn is Not as Bad as it Seems

It's been a little more than a week since Felipe Massa announced his agreement to return to Williams in 2017, contingent on Valtteri Bottas' move to Mercedes. Since then, some journalists, fans, and even Brazilian faithful (go to 9:08 here) have criticized Massa for this decision. Massa, of course, announced his retirement from Formula One in September before Williams signed young Canadian Lance Stroll to compete for the team in 2017.

Photo: Motorsport.com

To be honest, I understand the criticism. This isn't like Michael Jordan coming back to play for the Wizards after taking a few seasons off, nor is it like Michael Schumacher's return to Formula One with Mercedes in 2010 after retiring from Ferrari in 2006. It's not even like Jeff Gordon's return to the NASCAR cockpit this season after Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s concussion issues, which drew some criticism from ESPN's Ryan McGee.

This is a situation where the athlete won't even miss a single game (or, in this case, race) after coming back from his "retirement."

However, I'm not entirely convinced Massa actually wanted to retire. What virtually none of the mainstream motorsport journalists are talking about is that Massa told Motorsport.com in March of this year that he wanted to keep driving "for two to three more years." The article also noted how Massa was "adamant" he still had what it takes to stay in Formula One.

But Stroll's promotion was imminent, and of course, Williams were right in thinking it's smarter to keep Bottas over Massa, given the former's youth and the fact that the latter is beyond his prime. In my opinion, Williams gave Massa the opportunity to retire before they had to let him go, with both parties knowing the odds of him finding another (semi-)competitive ride in 2017 were slim to none.

So after Massa made his announcement, he was given a wonderful sendoff, including an emotional pit lane tribute in Brazil and a gift from Williams themselves.

And then, in a move no one saw coming, Nico Rosberg announced his own retirement, breaking Twitter and shocking the motorsport world in the process.

As I noted in a previous blog post, Bottas is a strong candidate to replace Rosberg. So what should Williams do in this situation?

They should do the same thing Rick Hendrick did when he needed a fill-in driver.

Sorry Ryan, but Gordon was one of the best possible options to replace Earnhardt. He knew Hendrick Motorsports better than any other driver and was obviously comfortable with the team. Why shouldn't he be at the top of Hendrick's list when it comes to the replacement search?

Massa's situation is virtually identical. A surprise opening (may have) just occurred at the team he recently "retired" from. He's still familiar with the team and personnel. What's the problem with Williams wanting him back? Furthermore, what's the problem with him accepting their offer?

To me, there is none.

Keep in mind, Williams can't just sign another young development or test driver, for multiple reasons. Most importantly, they need one with experience to mentor the young Stroll. Autoweek writer Sam Hall also points out Williams' need for at least one driver over the age of 25 since Martini is their most notable sponsor.

Also, here's the obvious disclaimer: the entirety of the post I've just written is completely irrelevant if Mercedes choose to sign someone other than Bottas. The deal isn't even close to official yet; it's all contingent on Bottas' move to Mercedes creating a need for a second driver at Williams. If Mercedes go with someone else, Massa doesn't come back. As nothing has been confirmed just yet regarding the Mercedes seat, the FIA's provisional entry list still has Stroll and Bottas as Williams' 2017 drivers.

If, however, Mercedes do sign Bottas, Massa has an offer to drive a Formula One car in 2017. And given what he said back in March and what he's given to the sport the last 15 years, he has every right to accept it.

I've Got a New Blog! Again!

Ten years ago last summer, the Pixar movie Cars was released. While it was not Pixar's most critically acclaimed production of all time, it certainly had a major effect on my life. If you know me well, you probably know where I'm going with this...

I started out as a huge NASCAR fan. That's probably unsurprising, since that's the racing series on which a major portion of Cars is based. The movie came out in June 2006, but it wasn't until October 8 of that year that I watched my first NASCAR race, the 2006 UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. I even wrote the linked Wikipedia article on the race, promoted it to Featured Article status, and got it onto the Main Page this fall as "Today's Featured Article" on the ten-year anniversary of the race. (Yes, I have way too much spare time on my hands.)

Photo I took at Dover in 2012 of Kurt Busch

driving to the garage after an engine failure

Next Memorial Day, May 27, 2007, my dad flipped the television to ABC to show me the 91st Indianapolis 500. It didn't take long for me to get hooked to IndyCar either.

It wasn't until a couple of years ago, however, that I really started to get into the true pinnacle of motorsport worldwide, Formula One. I had always had a slight idea of what was going on but I wasn't truly following the sport nearly as much as I do now. For example, I knew Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber were rivals at Red Bull Racing, but I would have had no clue what you were talking about if you had told me "Multi-21." When I visited my relatives in London over Easter Break in 2015, I found out Formula One was (and is) just as big of a thing over there as NASCAR is in the States, if not bigger. Once I started learning the basics of the series, all the teams (or constructors), and all the drivers, I was hooked again.

Nowadays, I'll watch anything with four (or two) wheels that goes fast, but these are the three series I follow most. So I decided to start (yet another) blog where I can give my opinions and two cents on what's going on in the world of racing. (I don't want to fill up my personal blog, Schneider Speaks, with nothing but motorsports posts.) Welcome to a new room in my Internet house. Pardon the dust while I work on some formatting...